Wise Women Won't Wait Any More

Wise Women Won't Wait Any More

Monday, April 23, 2018

Why do voters like Mary Wilson?

By Faith Chatham - April 23, 2018
More voters in Texas’ District 21 chose a woman who has always actively served people than any of the slicker, better financed candidates for Congress.

How shocking! The majority of the votes in the primary went not to the candidates with the most money or slickest campaign, but to Mary S. Wilson, a woman known in the community for serving people!
In a 4-way contested primary, she received 30.90% of the vote. She faces Joseph Kosper (20.3%) in a May 22nd Run-off for the Democratic Nomination for the open U.S. 21st District's Congressional seat being vacated by Lamar Smith.  This district includes part of Austin and San Antonio and many small towns in between, and runs west to Kerrville..
Why do folks like Mary Wilson?
She is a true progressive.
There is nothing Republican-lite about her. She has always worked for social justice. She has always lend a hand when folks needed one in whatever way she was able. She has always said people not having health care in a society such as ours, is stupid and unacceptable. She has always extended a welcoming hand to people, without classifying them superior or inferior according to immigration status, race, or the size of their bank accounts.
People in the District know what she stands for because they have seen her live it for years.
She is trusted to serve people in Washington because she always serves people here at home..
I like her because she is the absolute opposite of the man who currently occupies that seat. Give what you can.
She knows how to stretch resources. Investing in her campaign is a demonstration that we believe that decency and kindness has value, that society can work for everybody, that pushing others down to make a buck is not the ideals we choose to live by.
Never heard of her? Neither had the Texas Observer
Learn more by visiting her website.

She faces Joseph Kopser,, a former Republican, in the May 22nd Run-off. 

In a district surgically gerrymandered to favor Republican candidates, it is doubtful that Mr. Kopser can pull out a sufficient progressive base in November to defeat a Republican nominee. Why should a Republican vote for a "moderate Democrat"? They have choices within their own party whose positions lean toward the middle. Granted, moderates rarely win, because they have moderates of their own, should they favor them.

It will be an uphill battle for any Democrat running in that District. Mary Wilson has several things going for her: 1) Deep ties in the community. 2) Appeal to progressives who are mobilized in Texas this year, unlike previous election cycles. 3). She is a woman. For the first time, it is an advantage to be a Democratic woman running for Congress in Texas.  
Texas has Congressional candidates running in all 36 US House Districts this year Many districts, where GOP incumbents previously ran unopposed in the General Election, had contested Democratic Primaries. In every District where a woman was on the ballot for US Congress, the woman either won the Democratic Nomination without a run-off, or is one of the candidates in the run-off. In some districts where there were several men and two women candidates, the women are in the run-off. 

Texas US House candidates running in GOP controlled districts in Texas are raising money this year. Even the candidates with the smallest war chest have surpassed  most of the 2014 and 2016 Democratic Nominees's entire Primary and General Election fundraising totals combined already this year. For the first time in decades, we saw several US House challengers running in red districts raise $200,000 before the first of the year.
US Senate candidate, Beto O'Rourke is outraising GOP incumbent Ted Cruz!


More money was donated to Democratic candidates running in the District 21 Primary this year than has occurred in decades. Mary Wilson was third from the bottom in fundraising. Derrick Crow raised $177,695 and Joseph Kosper raise over a million. However, despite his war chest, the voters were not that greatly impressed with him.  
Now that Wilson has astounded herself, and most District 21 watchers, with her incredible 30.2% turnout with a cost per vote of $3.25 compared to her closest competitor's (Kosper) cost per vote of  $6.76 per vote, and she has made the Run-off, her financial prospects have significantly improved.
Derrick Crow spent $8.52 per vote. It is probable that now that Crow and others are out of the race, Wilson's fundraising will pick up. Donors rarely flock to candidate's unless they anticipate that they will be the front runner. If she comes through the Run-off on top, her "underdog not expected to win but did" momentum will probably capture volunteers, and some donors.

A Democrat does not have to match a Republican dollar for dollar to win. One has to run in a campaign cycle when voters are inspired to turn out, and to be able to appeal to the electorate. Mary Wilson has demonstrated that she has voter appeal.  More voters, candidates and activists are engaged in Texas this year than I have witnessed in my many years of political activism. Many are young people who are more progressive than the old "norm" for Texas voters. A candidate needs enough money to let the voters know she is in the race and has positions which work for them.

There is more than a Donald Trump factor at play in the Lone Star State. Texas activists were engaged in the Hillary Clinton campaign and propelled her to within 8 points of carrying the state, with the national Hillary campaign devoting  little leadership or investment into Texas. Hillary supporters organized themselves, acquired their own Hillary swag and yard signs, raised money for her campaign and defied the pundits to shut them down despite the tired old talking points of "how unenthusiastic" people were about her. In Texas, her supporters were determined and prepared to turn out the state for her, with or without resources from the national party. Experience gained during the 2016 General Election, when Texans astounded the nation by being "in play", despite being discounted by many within, and outside of the state, has created an army of experienced GOTV activists who are engaging more to join their ranks in 2018. 
In 2017, the largest number of demonstrators in the history of the state, turned out in Austin for the Women's March. In 2018, the number was less in Austin, but statewide participation in the Women's Marches in cities and towns throughout the state probably exceeded the number who marched in Austin in 2017. The movement moved from the State Capitol into communities all over the Lone Star State.
There is a saying: "Beware of a pissed off woman" In Texas the climate of oppression,  attacks on women's health care, decades of the state refusing to fund rape kits processing, cuts to teachers pay, escalating health insurance premiums for teachers, and Republicans voting down equal pay for equal work on April 9, 2014, and shootings in schools and other venues, has been bringing formerly passive women to the streets.

 Trump was merely the match that lit an already smoldering fuse among women in Texas. We are seeing women step out to run for office in record numbers on the Democratic ticket. We are seeing donors give to women this year, and in many instances giving more than they gave to men running for the same offices in previous election cycles, or who are running against them this year.. 
I will not predict the outcome of the US Texas 21st District race. This is by no means a "normal election cycle." Getting voters to turn out for a run-off is not easy. 
 We have a contested Governor's race on the ballot.  I lean toward believing that Mary Wilson will be the nominee. . 
Districts were gerrymandered to favor Republicans. The majority of people who are marching in these large marches are young people who   not registered to vote prior to 2016,  and women. Many  young people are turning voting age this year, and are involved in the March 4 Our Lives movement.  Many middle age, and older women, are becoming activists for the first time in their lives.
These districts were drawn with traditional Republican and Democratic turn-out and there is nothing normal these days about the numbers of traditional Republican versus Democratic voters. The rate of growth of Democrats in Texas is much higher than the rate of growth of Republican. Maybe we should say: "Beware of a pissed off woman and beware of pissed off teenagers who are tired of being targets for deranged shooters at school and shopping malls and movie theatres!"

It is possible that an underdog, a woman who did not expect to get into the run-off, who spent much less per vote in the primary than most of her competitors, may pull it off and flip the seat vacated by Lamar Smith from Red to Blue in 2018. Her supporters are engaged. The strongest force in an election is supporters who truly LIKE and TRUST and prefer their candidate to win. That describes the people who LIKE Mary Wilson.


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